BTC Price Prediction: 2025-2040 Outlook and Key Factors

#BTC

• Technical Strength: BTC trades above key moving averages with Bollinger Band expansion signaling volatility
• Institutional Demand: BlackRock's BTC ETF outperforming traditional assets indicates growing adoption
• Macro Patterns: Active supply contraction mirrors late 2024 rally conditions

BTC Price Prediction

BTC Technical Analysis: Bullish Momentum Building

According to BTCC financial analyst John, Bitcoin is currently trading at $109,102.91, above its 20-day moving average of $105,873.38, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD shows bearish momentum with a reading of -528.5080, but the Bollinger Bands suggest potential volatility with the upper band at $109,979.89 and the lower band at $101,766.88. John notes that a sustained break above the upper Bollinger Band could signal further upside.

Market Sentiment Mixed as Bitcoin Nears Key Resistance

BTCC financial analyst John highlights conflicting signals in the market. While headlines like 'Bitcoin Price Surges Toward $110K' and 'Bitcoin Eyes $120K Breakout' suggest bullish momentum, concerns linger with news of 'Bitcoin Faces Potential Crash to $98,200' and ETF outflows of $350M. John believes the overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, driven by institutional interest and historical patterns echoing late 2024 rallies.

Factors Influencing BTC’s Price

Bitcoin Faces Potential Crash to $98,200 as Altcoin Season Delays Loom

Bitcoin's recent consolidation above $100,000 masks growing bearish sentiment, with analyst Dr. Cat warning of a potential drop to $98,200. A breach of this critical support level could accelerate losses, pushing BTC toward the $70,000 range. Ichimoku Cloud analysis reveals fragile bullish positioning, overshadowed by bearish daily and 2-day trends.

The broader market weakness threatens to postpone altcoin season further. While Bitcoin struggles to maintain momentum, traders are bracing for heightened volatility. The crypto market's direction hinges on whether key technical levels hold or capitulate under mounting pressure.

Bitcoin Active Supply Drops 17%: Historical Patterns Suggest Potential Market Shift

Bitcoin's on-chain activity has cooled significantly over the past month, with the active supply metric falling 17%. The 30-day change in Bitcoin's % Supply Active—measuring circulating coins involved in transactions—has turned negative after peaking during last year's bull run.

This pattern mirrors September 2024's drawdown, when reduced blockchain activity preceded a market consolidation phase. Notably, Bitcoin's recent breach of $100,000 failed to stimulate the typical surge in dormant coin movement, suggesting weakening retail participation despite price stability.

Historical data indicates such supply contractions often precede periods of accumulation before major price movements. The current trend resembles the Q1 2024 lull that preceded Bitcoin's climb to new all-time highs, though market conditions now show distinct macroeconomic pressures.

Bitcoin Price Surges Toward $110K Amid Bullish Momentum

Bitcoin has reignited its upward trajectory, climbing from a $105,200 support level to challenge the psychologically significant $110,000 resistance. The BTC/USD pair broke through a key bearish trendline at $106,300 on Kraken's hourly chart, signaling renewed bullish conviction.

The cryptocurrency now trades firmly above $108,000 and its 100-hour moving average, with technical indicators suggesting potential for further gains. A decisive close above $110,000 could open the path for extended upside, while the $107,000 level serves as critical short-term support.

Market participants watch Fibonacci levels closely, with the price currently testing the 1.236 extension of its recent pullback. This technical breakout comes amid growing institutional interest and positive sentiment across digital asset markets.

Bitcoin Eyes $120K Breakout as Key Resistance Zone Approaches

Bitcoin is testing a critical resistance zone between $110,000 and $112,000, with a potential breakout paving the way for a rally toward $120,000. Currently trading NEAR $107,400, BTC has formed higher lows since March—a sign of accumulation—but lacks strong spot demand to fuel a sustained upward move.

Market sentiment remains neutral, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 51 suggesting room for volatility. A decisive close above $112,000 could invalidate the current bearish pattern, though repeated rejections at the descending trendline highlight weak conviction among traders.

BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Surpasses S&P 500 Fund in Revenue Generation

BlackRock’s iShares bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has eclipsed its flagship iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) in annual revenue, despite managing a fraction of the assets. The bitcoin ETF’s higher fee structure and rapid accumulation of $52 billion in assets under management (AUM) since its January 2024 launch have propelled it to the top spot. IBIT’s 0.25% management fee generates an estimated $187.2 million yearly, edging out IVV’s $187.1 million from its $624 billion AUM.

The success of IBIT highlights a seismic shift in investor preferences, with demand for regulated bitcoin exposure outweighing traditional index funds. BlackRock’s ability to marry crypto accessibility with institutional trust has proven a winning formula. The premium fees reflect the operational complexities of digital asset custody and compliance—a price investors seem willing to pay for secure exposure.

Bitcoin's Prolonged Consolidation: Analyst Highlights 36 Days of Meaningful Gains in Two-Year Cycle

Bitcoin's price action has been dominated by sideways movement for 195 consecutive days since December 2024, part of a broader two-year trend marked by fleeting rallies and persistent consolidation. Crypto Con, a noted market analyst, reveals that only 36 days of genuine upward expansion have defined this cycle—just 5.76 months of meaningful gains amid relentless grinding.

The "Cycle 4 Ranges and Expansions" chart underscores a pattern of stagnation punctuated by brief bursts. Despite market fatigue and repeated tests of lower support levels, the analyst maintains the cycle isn't over. "These explosive but short-lived rallies are what propel Bitcoin's major advances," the report suggests, framing the current lull as typical of historic accumulation phases.

Corporate Bitcoin Adoption Accelerates as Addentax Pivots to $1.3 Billion BTC Purchase

Addentax Group Corp. has dramatically scaled its cryptocurrency ambitions, replacing an $800 million mixed allocation to Bitcoin and TRUMP with a $1.3 billion BTC-only acquisition plan. The revised strategy signals growing institutional preference for Bitcoin maximalism among public companies.

The logistics firm now aims to acquire 12,000 BTC, up from its original 8,000 BTC target. This corporate buying spree mirrors MicroStrategy's successful treasury strategy, with public companies collectively outpacing both ETF inflows and mining production in Bitcoin accumulation.

While some firms like DeFi Development experiment with altcoin strategies, Bitcoin remains the dominant institutional choice. Addentax's billion-dollar commitment represents the largest single corporate BTC purchase announcement this week, underscoring the asset's growing role in corporate treasury management.

Celsius Wins Key Ruling in $4B Bitcoin Lawsuit Against Tether

A US bankruptcy court has greenlit Celsius Network's lawsuit against Tether, clearing the way for a high-stakes battle over 39,500 Bitcoin (BTC) worth $4 billion. The collapsed lender alleges Tether unlawfully liquidated collateral during last cycle's market crash without providing the contractual 10-hour notice.

Judge Martin Glenn rejected Tether's jurisdictional arguments, noting key transaction components were US-based. The ruling preserves Core claims including breach of contract and fraudulent transfer, while dismissing peripheral arguments. Market observers note the outcome could set precedent for crypto collateral agreements.

Bitcoin 30D Active Supply Drops 17%: Echoes of Late 2024 Rally

Bitcoin has surged 45% since its April low near $75,000, now trading just 4% below its all-time high of $112,000. The market stands at a critical juncture after weeks of consolidation, with price action in the coming days likely determining the next major move—either a breakout into uncharted territory or a retreat to key support levels at $103,600 and $100,000.

Bullish momentum builds as macro conditions stabilize, yet investors remain cautious. CryptoQuant data reveals a 17% drop in Bitcoin's 30-day active supply, signaling reduced on-chain activity—a pattern reminiscent of the pre-rally lull in late 2024.

The crypto market mirrors US equities' record highs, with fading macroeconomic uncertainty reigniting risk appetite. Bitcoin's next decisive move will confirm whether the rally has legs or requires further consolidation.

Bitcoin Nears Critical Weekly Close as Traders Eye $107,720 Breakout

Bitcoin's weekly candle close is shaping up to be a decisive moment for market direction, with $107,720 emerging as the key resistance level to watch. A confirmed breakout could propel BTC toward $130,000-$135,000 by Q3, replicating the explosive Q4 2024 rally that marked last cycle's strongest bullish phase.

Technical analysts highlight a recurring parallel channel pattern on weekly charts, with October historically serving as a breakout catalyst. The current setup mirrors October 2023 and 2024 formations that preceded major uptrends, suggesting a potential $150,916 target by October 2025 if historical patterns hold.

Short-term price action shows BTC testing support after a 1-hour downtrend, creating what some traders see as an accumulation opportunity. Market sentiment hinges on whether institutional buyers will step in to defend key levels ahead of the weekly close.

Bitcoin ETF Inflow Streak Snapped: $350M Outflows End 15-Day Run

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a dramatic reversal on July 1, with net outflows hitting $342 million—the first withdrawal since June 6. This interrupts a 15-day inflow streak that had pushed cumulative net inflows to $49 billion and total assets under management past $131 billion.

Fidelity's FBTC led the retreat with $172.73 million withdrawn, followed by Grayscale's GBTC at $119.51 million. Ark Invest's ARKB and Bitwise's BITB saw smaller but notable outflows. BlackRock's IBIT, the largest ETF by AUM, recorded zero flows for the day, halting its accumulation streak.

The outflow comes despite robust trading volume exceeding $2.7 billion across all spot BTC ETFs. Prior to this shift, the market had seen three days of inflows exceeding $500 million in late June, including a $588.55 million surge on June 24.

BTC Price Predictions: 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040 Forecasts

BTCC analyst John provides a long-term outlook for Bitcoin based on current technicals and market dynamics:

John emphasizes that these projections assume continued adoption and no regulatory setbacks, with volatility expected during each cycle.